New Statistical Methods (NSM)
This session theme will concentrate on where to find and how to develop new
methods that will be better suited to meet the existing and future needs of the
users. New statistical methods, other types of analysis, new sources of data
and information, use and matching of existing data from registers/databases to
new combinations of information and new methods of analysis. Papers reporting
and evaluating successful examples of applied new methods, use and matching of
existing data as well as other interesting perspectives are
encouraged.
Ayako Funazaki
Bank of Japan, International Department
This paper describes the new method reflecting results of a newly conducted survey to visitors from abroad on the amount of yen brought into and taken out of Japan. The travel in Balance of Payments in Japan had been compiled based on mainly data of exchanges at banks and cross-border cash settlements data from travel agencies and credit card companies; it had not included yen cash accompanying travelers. We conducted the survey from November through December 2002 and, based on the survey results, introduced the new methodology from January 2003. As a result, the gross totals for both credit and debit become significantly increased. Especially the volume of credit has approximately doubled.
Recently the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan reviewed methodology and source data to compile balance of payments statistics on travel in Japan, mainly in order to improve coverage of consumption of foreign travelers.
For decades, the compilation of travel had depended mostly on the reports regarding cash transfers and currency exchange submitted by travel agencies, credit card companies, and financial institutions, etc.
However, because of the internationalization of yen and the development of financial services, the amount of yen brought into Japan and withdrawn from cash dispensers or ATMs in Japan by foreign visitors seems to have been increasing. Actually since 1999, the change of travel credit had not corresponded to the number of foreign visitors. In 2002, the consumption per foreign visitor was about a half of that per Japanese overseas traveler, although their average stays are almost the same length and traveling costs (ex. accommodation fees) in Japan are not so different from those in other countries.
The BOJ and the MOF conducted a survey on foreign visitors in 2002 to address this problem. In January 2003, we started to compile travel credit using the new data estimated from the survey as well as the existing source data. Considering that yen brought into Japan are firstly taken and spent abroad by Japanese travelers, we also use a part of the survey results to compile travel debit.
Consequently, the imbalance of statistics has eased and the accuracy and reliability of travel item has remarkably improved. We will continue reviewing the methodology and the source data in accordance with the change in economic circumstances.
Methodology :
The Balance of Payments Statistics on Travel
Bibliography :
The data from Japan National Tourist Organization
The data from Japan Tourism Marketing Institute
The Report on International Price Differentials in Consumer Goods and Services (the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, 2002)
Anders Lundgren, Spatial Modelling Centre, Kiruna, Department of Social and Economic Geography, Umeå University
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Papers and presentations |
Micro-Simulation Modelling of Domestic Tourism Travel Patterns in Sweden |
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From a geographical point of view tourism is basically about flows in a spatial system linking together a place of origin and a destination, and about the impacts on change in these destinations induced by tourism. Forecasting these tourism flows requires however reliable data. In the Swedish context the available data source, the Swedish Tourist Database (TDB- Åre marknadsafakta AB), contains individual attributes as age and income as well as individual choices of tourist activities and hence, the database enables analysing socio-economic patterns in relation to recreational activities at an individual level.
Here it is demonstrated how the TDB-data can be integrated into SVERIGE, a geographical micro-simulation model of the entire Swedish population. It is argued that this modelling on the micro-level accounts for changes in population structure and geography to a far greater extent than conventional models because of its focus on individual behaviour in relation to individual socio-economic characteristics. Thus, population change is mirrored directly in the resulting travel patterns. Furthermore the TDB-data can be used to pinpoint regions with high attraction for certain activities.
This paper describes equations and calculations for SVERIGE’s tourism module and presents examples of model runs. The module is however not implemented in SVERIGE yet and the model runs are thus done in SPSS.
Luis Valdés, Director, Tourism Information System of Asturias, Gijón,
Spain
Emilio Torres, Sub-Director, Tourism Information System of Asturias, Gijón,
Spain
Eduardo del Valle, Coordinator, Tourism Information System of Asturias, Gijón,
Spain
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Papers and presentations |
NEW RESEARCH LINES ON TOURISM INFORMATION SYSTEMS: POTENTIAL DEMAND ANALYSES |
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NEW RESEARCH LINES ON TOURISM INFORMATION SYSTEMS: POTENTIAL DEMAND ANALYSES |
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Studies on Potential Demand detect and analyse quantitatively and qualitatively the future tourism trends of the potential source markets, providing both private and public policy makers with valuable information for their decision-making. The methodology of Potential Demand Analysis develops an analysis procedure which collects information on the current demand and services, the socio-economic characteristics of the potential source markets, their holiday habits, the image they have about the destination and the type of product and service which are likely to be demanded. This synthesis allows the design of new products and services, as well as the adaptation of tourist infrastructures to that Potential Demand. The System of Tourism Information of Asturias (SITA) has been developing this kind of studies since 1999 and this paper aims at presenting the main scientific and technical features of this methodology, the advantages and disadvantages, the difficulties and the solutions the SITA has experienced.
New statistical methods
Traditionally the main components of a Tourism Information System (TIS) are based on three fundamental pillars: the analysis of current tourism demand, the analysis of current offer and the macroeconomic analysis of tourism activity (WTO, 2002). In the last ten years several experiences, more or less complete, have been carried out and among them the regional system SAETA (Aurioles, 2000) and the Asturian SITA (Valdés, 1997) in Spain.
However, the growing needs of information to help private and public policy-makers in decision-making require new measure tools which allow a better knowledge of the tourism activity and its implications. We can distinguish four broad research areas the TIS will have to deal with in the near future:
Tourism in private accommodation (Laimer, 1999; Javor & Kalcic, 2000 Cortina et al., 2002; Gismondi & Mirto, 2002; Valdés & Torres, 2003).
Further deepening in methodologies of tourist expenditure estimation (WTO, 2000; Canadian Tourism Comissión et al., 2002; Valdés et al., 2003).
Tourism sustainability indicators (OECD, 1993; Dupeyras, 2002; EUROSTAT, 2002; Ministerio del Medio Ambiente, 2003).
Studies on Potential Demand.
In this sense, the System of Tourism Information of Asturias (SITA) has been going into the aforementioned research lines to enhance the recognition of Tourism’s socio-economic importance and its future role as a major provider of jobs and economic growth, and, in particular, since 1999 it has implemented several statistic operations to know the Potential Demand of the region, given the need of public and private policy-makers to carry out short- and long-term policies.
User value of the information/application text
Thus, this type of Potential Demand Analysis aims at establishing adequate parameters to detect and analyse quantitatively and qualitatively the future tourism trends of the potential emitting markets, so that they help public and private policy-makers to design promotional campaigns and to create or adapt products and services which attract and meet the needs of the Potential Demand. In the short term the goals of this kind of studies are the implementation of promotional campaigns of specific products and in the middle- and long-term the awareness and fidelization of that Potential Demand. The main benefits of these studies are two: firstly, to design proposals to deseasonalise tourism, and secondly, to adapt or create the required infrastructures to meet the needs of tourism demand in the near future.
Methodology
The methodology of Potential Demand Analysis has been designed so that the collected information is coherent with already-available data, especially that referring to the current demand and to the supply of data, current products and services. Thus, the obtained knowledge serves to detect future trends in the evolution of tourism behaviour. The employed methodology is complemented with statistical survey operations in source markets, analysing both the current and potential demand. This has been successfully carried out in various Spanish and Portugeses regions (Atlantic market, Castilian market, Basque market, Valencian market: Valencia) and has been useful for policy-makers to design their promotional campaigns as well as products and services.
The variables used in this methodology which analyses the potentiality of a particular emitting market towards a specific destination are:
Main features of the Demand of the emitting market which currently visits the destination.
Main features of the services and products consumed by that Current Demand in the destination.
Tourist expenditure of the Current Demand in the destination.
Establishment of the critical mass of the Potential Demand of that emitting market.
Socio-economic characteristics of the emitting market.
Time and space distance between the emitting market and the destination.
Holiday habits of the emitting market.
Perception of the emitting market about the destination.
Products and services to be demanded by the emitting market in the destination.
Taking these factors as the starting point, it is designed a model which devises and synthesises different sources of information to identify the reasons why tourists from the source market come, do not come, on which conditions they would come and what products they would consume, and the image they have of the destination, to further design performance proposals for public and private policy-makers.
This paper presents the main scientific and technical characteristics of this methodology, its advantages and disadvantages, the difficulties and solutions the System of Tourism Information of Asturias has experienced when using this kind of studies.
References
AURIOLES, J. (2000) “El proyecto SAETA. Un instrumento para la observación regional del turismo como actividad económica” Estudios Turísticos, nº 144–145, pp. 103–124. Instituto de Estudios Turísticos, Madrid.
CANADIAN TOURISM COMISSION, INSTITUTO DE ESTUDIOS TURÍSTICOS, SWEDISH TOURIST AUTHORITY, WORLD TOURISM ORGANIZATION (2002) Research on international experiences in measuring visitor expenditure associated with inbound tourism. Provisional version. Ed. Araldi. Madrid.
CORTINA, F., MARTÍNEZ, A., VARELA, B. (2002) “Aproximación a la investigación del alojamiento privado de uso turístico”. Estudios Turísticos, nº 151, pp. 87–97. Instituto de Estudios Turísticos, Madrid.
DUPEYRAS, A. (2002) “OECD indicators for integrating environmental concerns into tourism policies”, 6th International Forum on Tourism Statistics, Budapest.
EUROSTAT (2002) Community methodology on Tourism statistics. Proposal for up-dates, rev.1a., Luxembourg.
GISMONDI, R., MIRTO, A. (2002) “El turismo en los alojamientos colectivos y privados en Italia: definiciones, clasificaciones y técnicas estimación”. Estudios Turísticos, nº 151, pp. 51–85. Instituto de Estudios Turísticos, Madrid.
JAVOR, A., KALCIC, I. (2000) “Private accommodation in tourism statistics in the Republic of Croatia”. 5th International Forum on Tourism Statistics, Glasgow.
LAIMER, P. (1999) “The existing data collection system for private accommodations on use of tourism supply and tourism supply in Austria”. Task force meeting on methodological issues linked to tourism, Luxembourg.
MINISTERIO DEL MEDIO AMBIENTE (2003) Spanish System of Environmental Tourism Indicators. Madrid
OECD (1993) “OECD core set of indicators for environmental performance reviews”. Environment Monographs, nº 83. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris.
WTO (2000) General guidelines for developing the Tourism Satellite Account (TSA). Volume 1. Measuring total tourism demand. Ed. WTO, Madrid.
WTO (2002) Apuntes de metodología de la investigación en turismo. WTO, Madrid.
VALDÉS, L. (director) (1997) El Turismo en Asturias. Universidad de Oviedo. Dirección General de Comercio y Turismo del Principado de Asturias, Gijón.
VALDËS, L., TORRES, E. (2003) “El turismo en alojamientos privados. Líneas de trabajo del Sistema de Información Turística de Asturias”, I Reunión Grupo de Trabajo sobre la estimación del alojamiento privado de uso turístico, Madrid.
VALDÉS, L., TORRES, E., DOMINGUEZ, J.S. (2003) “Econometric models for tourism expenditure. Inappropriateness of the classical estimation methods”, 54 Session of the International Statistical Institute, Berlin.
Augusto Huéscar Lerena, Instituto de Estudios Turísticos (IET), Spain
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Papers and presentations |
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Based on the information furnished by the Border Movements Survey (Estadística de Movimientos en Fronteras, FRONTUR), carried out by the Instituto de Estudios Turísticos (IET) of Spain, a characterization of tourists is presented periodically. This rich, technologically updated, reliable and internationally recognised source of information on the international tourism demand of Spain allows, for long periods like the ones considered in this paper (two years), deep segmentation analysis which can definitely contribute to more operative marketing outlays.
The several groups proposed are obtained from and based on statistical methodology and criteria (correspondence analysis previous to cluster analysis), but is also taking into consideration the knowledge of the international tourism flows in Spain achieved in IET after long years of observation and analysis. Grouping by, among others, country of residence, activities during trip, main purpouse of the trip and the season when it took place, a number of independent collectives have arised as the most significant in spanish international inbound tourism.
This sort of analysis, and this is the main objective of the paper, is crucial for improving the operativity and return of marketing investments. Knowing as deeply and as accurately the characteristics of those who visit a certain destination, will help future promotion raise its productivity since it could be more precisely addressed in time and space.
Methodology:
Frontur Methodology. Administrative records from air, road, sea and rail official bodies responsible, contribute to generating the universe of travellers from where 260.000 interviews a year help drawing the collectives interesting to tourism matters, that is, visitors, tourists and same day visitors.
Cluster analysis has been applied to a two year sample in order to obtain reliable results and being able to deepen the analysis as much as necessary
User value:
From a purely economic point of view this sort of analysis can contribute to raising the returns of marketing efforts, since it helps reaching the types of tourists a destination receives over a certain period of time. But this is not the only strengh of this analysis. Also the tourism planners or even tourism managers can benefit from knowing better their clientele.
Bibliography:
Esteban, A., Técnicas de previsión y análisis de comportamiento de la demanda turística. Revista de Estudios Turísticos (1984) Nº 84.
Johns, N. and Gyimothy, S. Market segmentation and the prediction of tourist behaviour; the case of Bornholm, Denmark. Journal of Travel Research Vol 40, February 2002
Formica, S. and Uysal, M., Market segmentation of an international cultural- historical event in Italy. Journal of Travel Research Vol 36, Spring 1998
Arimond, G, Achenreiner, G, and Elfessi, A., An innovative approach to tourism market segmentation research: an applied study. Journal of Hospitality & Leisure Marketing. Vol 10 (3/4). 2003
McKercher, B., Ho, P., du Cros, H. and Chow so Ming, P., Activities based segmentation of the cultural tourism market. Journal of Hospitality & Leisure Marketing. Vol 12 (1). 2002
Dolnicar, S., A review of data-driven market segmentation in tourism. Journal of Hospitality & Leisure Marketing. Vol 12 (1) 2003
Giovanni Giuseppe Ortolani, statistician, Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi, Statistics
Department, Roma, Italy
Andrea Alivernini, statistician, Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi, Statistics
Department, Roma, Italy
Luca Buldorini, statistician, Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi, Statistics
Department, Roma, Italy
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Papers and presentations |
Inbound
tourism in Italian regions: |
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Inbound tourism has traditionally an important weight in Italy’s economy. Nevertheless, in recent year the country’s share of global international tourism turnover showed a decline (from 6.8% in 1997 to 5.7% in 2002).
The paper tests the hypothesis that the position in the ‘life-cycle’ of the various destinations, considered as tourism products offered to non-resident visitors, is significantly differentiated among regions. Some regions might be touristically ‘mature’ whereas other could – actually or potentially – be at earlier stages of tourism development. The study outlines the geographical areas with the highest growth potential, i.e. the regions that in principle should be focused on by policy-makers. At the same time, the research provides hints on the potential development that an optimal exploitation of tourist resources could generate.
The research relies on two main theoretical and methodological tools:
An original methodology, developed by the Touring Club Italiano, to assess the potential tourist ‘attractivity’ of each region, based on a rigorous inventory of cultural, environmental and social tourist attractors at the various destinations. The comparison between the potential attractivity of each region and the actual level of inbound tourism receipts is used to estimate, on one hand, the degree of unexploited potential and, on the other hand, the ‘optimal’ size of receipts.
A model of inter-regional economic effects of touristic consumption generated by non resident visitors, developed by Italian research institutes (CISET and IRPET). The model is used to translate the ‘optimal’ size of international receipts of each region into the potential increase of value added and employment of the same regions.
As far as the empirical evidence is concerned, the analysis heavily relies on a huge, highly detailed database on non-residents visits built from a multi-annual survey on international tourism conducted by the Ufficio Italiano dei Cambi (130,000 face-to-face interviews per year since 1996).
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